(iTers News) - Although PV manufacturers across the world are keeping their production lines humming to meet a rush of orders riding on the strong demand in the U.K. and Japan in first quarter, pricing in the PV industry is likely to drop in the following quarter, according to EnergyTrend, a subsidiary of Taiwan-based market intelligence firm TrendForce.
The research organization blamed ongoing countervailing duty, or CVD and anti-dumping duty issues between U.S., China, and Taiwan for the price erosion, pointing out that PV shipments were mostly focused on the U.S. market, while shipments have eased in other markets.
Solar PV supply chains are starting to see demand in China whither, while demand in the U.S. and Japan remain stable, said EnergyTrend Research Manager Jason Huang. As such trends occur, solar supply chains are nevertheless expected to increase production capacity in the second half of 2014, which means Chinese market demands will play a major role in terms of global solar PV pricing and volume. If demands in China remain at around 10-12GW then manufacturers in the PV supply chain can balance out orders in conjunction with their new capacity. However, if Chinese market demands are lower than expected coupled with uncertainties surrounding CVD and AD issues, the PV market still risks oversupply and hence declined prices.
Polysilicon capacity on the rise; silicon wafer prices drop
Meanwhile, recent EnergyTrend statistics show first-tier polysilicon makers are currently running at full capacity and polysilicon pricing is on the rise. Evaluations of manufacturers expansion plans after 2015 show manufacturers that previously halted productions returning to the market. In the short term, these manufacturers will be focused on manufacturing quality so utilization rates will remain low and have limited effect on market demands.
Silicon wafer makers on the other hand saw strong demands in the first quarter of 2014, and thus this led to steady PV shipments and pricing. Meanwhile, second-tier manufacturers were able to maintain high utilization rates. However, as demands weaken in 2Q14, second-tier vendors are likely to return to more conservative outlooks, and production strategies after clearing out inventory.
Strong market demands
Because of the postponement on the US-China preliminary AD rulings, solar cell makers in Taiwan could maintain high utilization rates till mid-June this year. On the other hand, Chinese manufacturers saw utilization rates drop due to the financing pressures caused by excess inventory in the U.S. If solar demand picks up in the second half of the year, however, manufacturers might add more than 4GW solar cell production capacity onto the market, said Huang.
In terms of modules, top Chinese manufacturers still control export markets, and are using it as a measure to alleviate shipment risks. Whereas second- and third-tier makers have seen reduced OEM orders. Moreover, the Chinese market demand has remained dormant, with manufacturers utilization rates showing polarized results. Trade wars with U.S. are also impacting Chinese manufacturers business strategy as more are engaged in global OEM strategies.
Other manufacturers outside of China and Taiwan have also scaled up production capacity in Southeast Asia, Korea, Japan and other regions to fill in the demand gap left by Chinese manufacturers because of trade wars against China carried out by Europe, U.S., India and Australia.
(By courtesy of Jason Huang, Research Manager, EnergyTrend)
[sws_toggle1 title="Jason Huang">
Name: Jason Huang
Title: Research Manager
Areas of Coverage: PV Price, PV Market Trends
Years of Experience : PV Market Research
Education: Master's degree,University of Arizona, Master of Science in Management with a Concentration in Finance (MMF)
Jason Huang is a solar analyst for TrendForce's green energy research division, specializing in research of the photovoltaic market and industry strategy. With an extensive background in the solar and renewable energy fields, he has participated in key industry affairs such as the development of Taiwan's national photovoltaic industry policy. His previous experience also includes positions at photovoltaic application product company, economic research unit, vertically integrated photovoltaic manufacturer, etc. Jason currently works in the EnergyTrend division, providing photovoltaic market analysis, database building, and project development. [/sws_toggle1]