(iTers News) - During the third quarter of 2013, the recovery of the solar photovoltaic (PV) industry took a major step forward. Nine of the top ten solar PV module suppliers are forecast to achieve quarterly shipment growth, with six set to claim all-time shipment records. Module pricing for leading tier 1 Chinese suppliers stabilized for the third consecutive quarter, at approximately US$0.63/W, allowing gross margins to increase to 18%, according to findings from the latest NPD Solarbuzz Module Tracker Quarterly report.


“During Q3’13, new solar PV module shipment records are likely to be reported by Yingli Green Energy, Trina Solar, Canadian Solar, First Solar, Jinko Solar, and ReneSola,” according to Ray Lian, senior analyst at NPD Solarbuzz. ”For the seventh consecutive quarter, Yingli Green Energy is forecast to post another solar PV industry record for quarterly module shipments, driving Yingli’s twelve month shipments to 3 gigawatts.”


For the trailing twelve month (ttm) period ending in Q3’13, leading Chinese module suppliers Yingli Green Energy, Trina Solar, and Canadian Solar occupied the top three global rankings for total megawatts shipped, with Jinko Solar likely to grab the third ranking position. During Q3’13, Chinese tier 1 suppliers held seven of the top ten module shipment ranking positions, with ReneSola, Hanwha SolarOne, and Hareon Solar completing the list of dominant Chinese suppliers.


The blended average selling price (ASP) for the top 20 solar PV module suppliers during Q3’13 showed a slight quarter over quarter (Q/Q) decline to US$0.74/W, compared to US$0.75/W during Q2’13. This decline was driven mainly by the decreases in ASPs within the Japanese market, where increased competition between domestic and foreign suppliers is starting to erode the historic ASP premiums available in Japan.


The blended ASPs for tier 1 Chinese module suppliers have now become flat, at approximately US$0.63/W, for the first three quarters of 2013. Jinko Solar continues to have the lowest blended costs across all tier 1 solar PV suppliers, and is set to become the first to reach the landmark US$0.50/W, for silicon and non-silicon costs. Within the non-Chinese tier 1 category, REC Solar emerged with the most cost competitive structure during Q3’13.


As a result of these cost reductions, blended gross margins for the top 20 solar PV module suppliers increased to 12.5% in Q3’13, compared to 11.3% in Q2’13. Leading tier 1 suppliers Jinko Solar and Renesola are now driving a select group of Chinese module suppliers exceeding gross margins above 18%.


Figure 1: Average Selling Prices, Blended Costs, and Gross Margins of Top 20 Solar PV Module Suppliers



Source: NPD Solarbuzz Module Tracker Quarterly


The market share assigned to the top 20 module suppliers remains above 70% across most countries; however, in China, which was the strongest end-market during Q3’13, the top 20 suppliers provided just 50% of solar PV modules. This situation is due to strong shipments from domestic tier 2 and tier 3 module producers that are choosing to focus now on the Chinese market, as opposed to shipping modules overseas.


In the US, First Solar continues to dominate module supply, due to its strong pipeline of large-scale utility projects; however, Yingli Green Energy has now replaced SunPower as the second largest module supplier for the ttm period ending Q3’13. Trina Solar maintained its fourth ranked position, with Canadian Solar and ReneSola completing the top six rankings.


Over the next few quarters, additional cost reductions are expected to come mainly from efficiency gains, complementing the material cost reductions obtained over the past 18 months. And with global ASPs likely to fluctuate within a relatively small range, several of the leading tier 1 Chinese module suppliers are poised to reclaim gross margins above 20%, which were last reported at the end of 2010.


(Credit: NPD Solarbuzz)


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